I won't become president in January, 2017. And neither will any of you, my readers.
We're in good company, joining this list of distinguished others who will also never be president: Ben Carson, Hillary Clinton, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Rand Paul, Bernie Sanders, Jill Stein, and Donald Trump. Let's consider them in alphabetical order.
Ben Carson is a very nice man. I like him, and I'd enjoy having him as a house guest. He's gotten himself in trouble recently by suggesting that he'd never vote for a Muslim. Actually, I agree with him on that. The statement is analogous to what many on the Left say when they object to voting for a Mormon or a Catholic. Such preferences are the right of every voter, including Ben Carson. Note Mr. Carson did not say that Muslims are prohibited from being president.
But Mr. Carson is clearly out of his league. He has no experience relevant to being president, and it shows in the debates. He has maxed out on his poll numbers. He'll fade in the stretch.
Hillary Clinton is a crook. She can't tell the truth, neither about Benghazi nor her e-mail server. Worse, she's got Richard Nixon's trait of looking like a liar even when she is truthful.
If she wins the nomination she will lose the general election by a landslide. But I predict she will drop out of the race before the Democratic Convention. I think her candidacy is increasingly untenable.
Ted Cruz is a crank. I have suggested that he represents the stupid wing of the Republican Party. I don't agree with his position on immigration. His foreign policy suggestions are not serious. He takes the most radical possible position, winning the enthusiastic support of the most extreme Republican base. But he'll never win over the majority of Republicans, much less the general electorate. He's unelectable outside of Texas. (And after this campaign he may not even win re-election there, either.)
Carly Fiorina is a naif. She reminds me of Sarah Palin--an attractive candidate on the surface, but completely unprepared for the attack ads. Like Ms. Palin, Ms. Fiorina has no clue what's coming at her. It will start with her Republican opponents if, by some fluke, she actually wins a primary. And if she survives that the Democrat smear machine will take her apart limb from limb. Like Ms. Palin, there won't be a stitch left on her reputation when they're done.
But she won't get that far. Though it's great having her on the debate stage.
Rand Paul is an ideologue. He has tried very hard to leave his father behind and become a more mainstream, electable Republican. But he can't do it. He just doesn't believe in any credible foreign policy, often sounding to the Left of President Obama. He is very smart and articulate--great fun to listen to. I agree with 90% of what he says, but the remaining 10% is a deal-breaker. Judging from the polls, my Republican comrades agree with me.
Bernie Sanders is a clown. He's the Democrat analog to Ted Cruz--a charlatan appealing to the Progressive faithful. His promises are so outlandish that there is no way he could keep them if he tried. For example, he thinks we'll get richer if we restrict trade: in his world Americans won't be allowed to buy products from Canada, China, Mexico, or Central America. That's bad for American consumers, no doubt. Of course then we won't be able to sell products to those countries, either. That's bad for American workers.
People earn money by selling stuff to other people. How can you earn money when it becomes illegal to buy and sell?
Jill Stein is a fool. I don't understand why she is running. Her program is mostly indistinguishable from Mr. Sanders, except that she is completely oblivious to even the most obvious economics. Indeed, her demand to equalize incomes in America reduces to Poverty now for everybody--even the 1%.
For example: "Create millions of jobs by transitioning to 100% clean renewable energy by 2030, and investing in public transit, sustainable agriculture, and conservation."
Note to Jill & Bernie: it is easy to create jobs. You can just hire folks to dig holes in the ground and then fill them in again. That's what they did during the New Deal. That's what they've been doing in China. But jobs like that don't make anybody any richer. Them's prison jobs.
Why invest in public transit when nobody wants to ride public transit? Most of the trains and buses in this country move around empty. But Jill wants us to dig more holes.
Some of my Trotskyist friends support her over Mr. Sanders solely because she doesn't have a (D) after her name. This is like their support for the Syriza opposition that just got 3% of the vote in Greece. That's what they call a "realistic" path to socialism.
Donald Trump is a fraud. So he's gonna kick out 11 million illegal aliens in two years, and then let most of them back in via an "expedited" process. Why? How? Who is paying for all that?
The man's a great entertainer and skilled TV personality. But he's already wearing thin. By the time real Republicans have to cast real votes, he won't get 10% of them, if that many.
Mr. Trump, far from being a Republican, represents the stupid wing of the Democrat party. We're being trolled, and eventually we'll wise up and push him aside.
The viable Republican candidates are Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush and Chris Christie. The only viable "candidate" for the Democrats is Joe Biden, if he wants to run.
I think it's going to be a Republican year.