Wednesday, June 26, 2019

Book Review: Kim Jong Un

The book is by Anna Fifield and is entitled The Great Successor: The Divinely Perfect Destiny of Brilliant Comrade Kim Jong Un. Ms. Fifield is the Beijing bureau chief for the Washington Post and has made many trips to North Korea (DPRK). She speaks and reads Korean--already an accomplishment, since for English speakers it is among the hardest languages to learn.

Born in 1984, Kim Jong Un led a very protected childhood. He was not allowed to play with other children--indeed, his Japanese sushi chef was appointed as his playmate. He lived in the royal palace in Pyongyang, but not just that. The palace was separated into family units that were sealed from each other, so Un couldn't even play with his half-siblings or cousins. On summer holiday he went to the beach resort of Wonsan--the regime's playground--on lavish but similarly isolated holidays.

Un had four siblings (mentioned in the book; Wikipedia lists some others). The oldest was Un's half brother Kim Jong Nam, whose mother was Kim Jong Il's mistress. She was an actress who spent many years living in Russia. Because Nam was Jong Il's eldest son, he was the logical successor to the throne. Which is why he was assassinated by North Korean agents in Malaysia in 2016.

Kim Jong Il eventually took a real wife, Ko Yong Hui--a dancer born in Japan--who bore him three children. The eldest was Kim Jong Chol, described as effeminate and "bosomy," and never a serious contender for leadership. Then came Un, whose mother worked hard to earn him pride of place, purposely discrediting both Kim Jong Nam and his mother. Finally, they had a baby sister, Kim Yo Jong--the woman who represented the DPRK at the Olympics in South Korea in 2018.

Chol, Un, and Yo lived in luxurious isolation from other relatives--and from the rest of North Korea. It's possible that Un didn't even know about the famine that ravaged the country in the 1990s.

In 1996 Un joined his brother Chol in Switzerland to attend school. They lived with a maternal aunt. Un was not especially interested in academics, but in those days cared more about sport.  There are photos of Un swimming on the Riviera and skiing in the Alps. Most of all he was a basketball fanatic, spending all his spare time shooting hoops. A devoted fan of the Chicago Bulls, in later years he befriended Dennis Rodman, who made several trips to party with the Great Successor.

Un made few friends--his language skills stood in the way, and he hated playing with other children, accustomed as he was to adult company. But all that Franco-German food began to take its toll--during those years he acquired his double chin.

Today, standing 5'7", Un weighs nearly 300 lbs. He suffered gout in his ankle, necessitating an embarrassing, weeks-long absence from public life. He returned to service walking with a cane. Short hikes with South Korean president Moon Jae In--30 years Un's senior--left the Great Successor breathless.
[W]hen they all went to Mount Paektu together in September, Kim Jong Un was panting heavily. He observed that Moon didn't seem out of breath at all. Not for a walk as easy as this, responded the South Korean, who loves to hike.
Mount Paektu, the peninsula's tallest peak, has spiritual significance for all Koreans. Kim Il Sung claimed the mantle of Mt. Paektu. His son, Kim Jong Il (born in a Russian labor camp) was (in legend) born on Mt. Paektu. According to Pyongyang's leading newspaper, "The Majestic Comrade Kim Jong Un, descended from heaven and conceived by Mt. Paektu."

So no wonder that Western leaders, including Donald Trump, couldn't take this very strange, funny-looking, little man seriously. The insults flew as only Trump can throw them: mad man, little rocket man, maniac, bad dude, to name a few. Here's a list of 15 insulting nicknames directed at the inheritor of Paektu.

The surprise is that Kim Jong Un is in fact a master Machiavellian. President Trump has learned that the hard way.

Upon Kim Jung Il's death in 2011, Un had to consolidate his power. The first step was to eliminate any rivals.
Generally, the risk in this early period is killing too many people, not too few, Bueno de Mesquita told me when I went to see him in his office at New York University. If you get rid of too many, those who remain think their leader is indiscriminate and have a reason to live in fear. But if you kill too few? Well, that's easy enough to fix.
The assassination of his older brother, potentially a rival claimant, was essential. Then his father's cronies--older men who saw themselves as regents or as powers behind the throne--had to be eliminated. Most consequential was the execution of his powerful, gregarious, and charismatic uncle, Jang Song Thaek. And not just him but dozens or even hundreds of his coterie. Most dramatic was the killing of General Hyon Yong Chol, who apparently fell asleep during one of the Great Successor's speeches and "was publicly executed by antiaircraft guns, a method that would have blown him to a pulp."

Un understood that he needed friends to stay in office. So he allowed a sizable clique of people to become rich--a group with a sufficient stake in the system to defend it, who also understood that their wealth depended entirely on Un's pleasure.

Then he realized that economic progress was essential. Failure to improve living standards across the country would lead to his downfall. So he liberalized the economy allowing private markets to flourish. It was a capitalist-like solution, but definitely not capitalist. A capitalist owns the means of production. In the DPRK Kim Jong Un owns everything--nobody else can profit except by stealing. But the crime was ignored--until it wasn't. At that point, from one day to the next, the "capitalist" could lose everything and end up in a prison camp.

Still, the reform improved people's lives across the board.

Finally, North Korea is always afraid of attack from the US or one of its neighbors, and for that reason feels it must have nuclear weapons as a deterrent. Much to everybody's surprise, Un built and tested a hydrogen bomb, along with true, intercontinental ballistic missiles. Accordingly, Un followed a policy of byungjin: pursuing both nuclear weapons and economic growth at the same time.

According to Ms. Fifield the North Koreans have no further need to test either instrument, and their concession to stop blowing up mountains and shooting rockets over Japan is, in fact, an empty gesture. They weren't going to do that any more anyway.

I don't think Trump understood that before, but I believe he realizes it now. He still claims credit for stopping the DPRKs missile tests, but that's just for public consumption. Unlike previous American administrations, he's kept the sanctions on full blast--not relieving them even a little bit. Until Un makes some real concessions, Mr. Trump isn't going to make any, either.

American sanctions under Trump are somehow made of sterner stuff than in past times. They have real bite--the DPRK is under what amounts to a naval blockade. That, along with bad weather, is resulting again in widespread famine. This has to undermine the Kim regime.

Kim hopes to die peacefully in his bed and pass power on to one of his children (it seems he has at least three). But at age 35 he's seriously obese, a heavy smoker, and suffers from heart disease and diabetes. He may not be long for this world.

The Paektu dynasty might be coming to an end. Let's hope so.

Further Reading:

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