Decadence, in Mr. Douthat's usage, does not imply a moral or bacchanal degeneration. Instead it means stagnation, complacency, lack of vigor. Unlike crisis, decadence doesn't auger imminent doom, but is rather a kind of purgatory--a changeless state that can last indefinitely. Decadence ends either because renewed vigor that moves society up and away, or because catastrophe brings stasis to a close.
Among the indicators of decadence is the slow-growth economy. The global economy began to slow down in the mid-1970s, and specifically productivity took a dive. That means technology wasn't advancing as fast as it had in the past. Apart from a decade-long productivity-growth-spurt beginning in 1995 (likely due to the PC), global productivity growth remains tepid.
Drawing on Robert Gordon's superb book, The Rise and Fall of American Growth (my review here), Mr. Douthat doubts any resurgence in productivity. Gordon's book describes the miracle century, from 1870 to 1970. Beginning with the electric light, inventions included the telephone, the internal combustion engine, automobiles, municipal water and sewer systems, and much more besides. While everybody acknowledges that the Internet, Google, streaming, mobile phones, GPS, and Wikipedia are wonderful, they've done little to improve productivity statistics. The low-hanging fruit has already been harvested. No comparably important technology will be forthcoming.
So it is odd that Mr. Douthat never mentions fracking--arguably the most important new technology of our current century. Perhaps it won't dramatically change consumers' lives, but it definitely alters geopolitics--the US is now an energy exporter. See Peter Zeihan's book The Absent Superpower for more on that. Much of what Mr. Douthat describes as the end of neoliberalism is, in fact, because of fracking. In terms of geopolitics, fracking changes everything.
Another symptom of decadence is sterility. Apart from Africa and South Asia, birthrates around the world have been in steady decline. In the developed world fertility rates are now below replacement, i.e., fewer than 2.1 children per woman. Fertility in Japan, for example, is only 1.43. The US is at 1.84.
Mr. Douthat is right to be concerned. A country without children is a country without economic growth, without cultural or technical innovation, and ultimately a country without a future. For some countries (perhaps Japan) the disease might be terminal. But I doubt it generally is. I'm old enough to recall the 1970s when expert opinion was predicting a population explosion--we were doomed to Malthusian disaster.
The experts were wrong. That problem corrected itself. And I'll suggest the experts will be wrong again. The current trend is self-limiting--people will start having babies again. Linear extrapolation rarely works.
In a chapter entitled Sclerosis, Mr. Douthat remarks that governance decays
If there is one silver lining in this whole COVID-19 fiasco, it's that it might crash higher education. A more sclerotic, decadent institution cannot be imagined. Perhaps the pandemic crisis can break up the higher ed cartel. Here's hoping.
Among reasons to think our decadence might endure is because we're comfortable. Most Americans live in suburban homes--a chicken in every pot and two cars in the driveway. We vacation in Cancun or Disneyworld, and get 500 channels on the telly. Plus we're getting older.
What more do you want? Not much, apparently--decadence works just fine.
Similarly, we're addicted. Mr. Douthat cites porn as an example. Many thought that porn would inspire harassment or rape or worse. It turns out it does the opposite--men addicted to porn are perfectly happy to sit in their mothers' basements and take care of themselves. Instead of incentivizing sex, porn deadens the urge.
Similarly, Grand Theft Auto does not teach adolescent boys how to steal cars--it makes them less likely to steal real cars.
Then government encourages decadence. The myth of cradle-to-grave security saps ambition--why bother? Today's argument concerns the extent government will insure all citizens from the effects of the virus. The pro-decadent party (Democrats) support major bailouts, while the (slightly) anti-decadent party desires instead to reopen the economy as quickly as possible.
Most irritating to me is that Mr. Douthat grossly misunderstands President Trump. He dismisses him as an incompetent, accidental figure who was never anything more than a Reality TV host. I think this is unfair.
So Mr. Trump a) won the Republican nomination; b) won the 2016 election; c) nominated and had confirmed 193 judges to the federal judiciary; d) changed public opinion by 180 degrees about our relationship with China; e) stopped the caravans from coming across the border; f) defeated the Russia, Russia, Russia hoax; g) survived impeachment.
Now you may or may not like his successes, but it surely isn't fair to call him "incompetent" or "accidental." That doesn't fit at all.
Likewise, on a planet where the majority get their news from social media, isn't Mr. Trump's background as a reality TV host just the perfect talent? Love him or hate him, you gotta admit he's using the skill set to the max.
Finally, Mr. Douthat suggests that Trump's MAGA promises are just hot air. For example, he faults
This is not an empty list. Indeed, it's a very ambitious agenda--not at all clear that Trump can achieve it. But lack of success and lack of vision are two different things. Mr. Douthat is wrong when he claims Trump has no vision.
The Decadent Society is a beautiful, entertaining book. Perhaps we are decadent, but nowhere near as much a Mr. Douthat claims.
Further Reading:
Drawing on Robert Gordon's superb book, The Rise and Fall of American Growth (my review here), Mr. Douthat doubts any resurgence in productivity. Gordon's book describes the miracle century, from 1870 to 1970. Beginning with the electric light, inventions included the telephone, the internal combustion engine, automobiles, municipal water and sewer systems, and much more besides. While everybody acknowledges that the Internet, Google, streaming, mobile phones, GPS, and Wikipedia are wonderful, they've done little to improve productivity statistics. The low-hanging fruit has already been harvested. No comparably important technology will be forthcoming.
So it is odd that Mr. Douthat never mentions fracking--arguably the most important new technology of our current century. Perhaps it won't dramatically change consumers' lives, but it definitely alters geopolitics--the US is now an energy exporter. See Peter Zeihan's book The Absent Superpower for more on that. Much of what Mr. Douthat describes as the end of neoliberalism is, in fact, because of fracking. In terms of geopolitics, fracking changes everything.
Another symptom of decadence is sterility. Apart from Africa and South Asia, birthrates around the world have been in steady decline. In the developed world fertility rates are now below replacement, i.e., fewer than 2.1 children per woman. Fertility in Japan, for example, is only 1.43. The US is at 1.84.
Mr. Douthat is right to be concerned. A country without children is a country without economic growth, without cultural or technical innovation, and ultimately a country without a future. For some countries (perhaps Japan) the disease might be terminal. But I doubt it generally is. I'm old enough to recall the 1970s when expert opinion was predicting a population explosion--we were doomed to Malthusian disaster.
The experts were wrong. That problem corrected itself. And I'll suggest the experts will be wrong again. The current trend is self-limiting--people will start having babies again. Linear extrapolation rarely works.
In a chapter entitled Sclerosis, Mr. Douthat remarks that governance decays
...as popular programs become part of an informal social contract that makes them impossible to reform; as the administrative state gets barnacled by interest groups that can buy off and bludgeon would be reformers;...Why are the "barnacles" today so much stickier than they were fifty years ago? I'll hazard a guess: social media. The book that Mr. Douthat really needs to read is by Martin Gurri, entitled The Revolt of the Public. Social media allows interest groups to proliferate. Back in the 70s people celebrated Earth Day. From that a population hived off to Save the Whales. Today there is undoubtedly a Facebook page about saving specifically blue whales. The moral is that mass movements get fragmented. Social media allows people with very specific interests to find each other and form a "public" for a cause. It's not that the barnacles are stickier. It's just that there are a whole lot more barnacles than there used to be.
If there is one silver lining in this whole COVID-19 fiasco, it's that it might crash higher education. A more sclerotic, decadent institution cannot be imagined. Perhaps the pandemic crisis can break up the higher ed cartel. Here's hoping.
Among reasons to think our decadence might endure is because we're comfortable. Most Americans live in suburban homes--a chicken in every pot and two cars in the driveway. We vacation in Cancun or Disneyworld, and get 500 channels on the telly. Plus we're getting older.
What more do you want? Not much, apparently--decadence works just fine.
Similarly, we're addicted. Mr. Douthat cites porn as an example. Many thought that porn would inspire harassment or rape or worse. It turns out it does the opposite--men addicted to porn are perfectly happy to sit in their mothers' basements and take care of themselves. Instead of incentivizing sex, porn deadens the urge.
Similarly, Grand Theft Auto does not teach adolescent boys how to steal cars--it makes them less likely to steal real cars.
Then government encourages decadence. The myth of cradle-to-grave security saps ambition--why bother? Today's argument concerns the extent government will insure all citizens from the effects of the virus. The pro-decadent party (Democrats) support major bailouts, while the (slightly) anti-decadent party desires instead to reopen the economy as quickly as possible.
Most irritating to me is that Mr. Douthat grossly misunderstands President Trump. He dismisses him as an incompetent, accidental figure who was never anything more than a Reality TV host. I think this is unfair.
So Mr. Trump a) won the Republican nomination; b) won the 2016 election; c) nominated and had confirmed 193 judges to the federal judiciary; d) changed public opinion by 180 degrees about our relationship with China; e) stopped the caravans from coming across the border; f) defeated the Russia, Russia, Russia hoax; g) survived impeachment.
Now you may or may not like his successes, but it surely isn't fair to call him "incompetent" or "accidental." That doesn't fit at all.
Likewise, on a planet where the majority get their news from social media, isn't Mr. Trump's background as a reality TV host just the perfect talent? Love him or hate him, you gotta admit he's using the skill set to the max.
Finally, Mr. Douthat suggests that Trump's MAGA promises are just hot air. For example, he faults
A conservatism with no vision of how to revitalize itself and, therefore, no defense except a wall, the moat, the rampart.This is not a fair description of Trumpism. The wall by itself will not revitalize America--but surely it's an essential first step. A country without borders isn't a country. Add to the border: a repatriation of manufacturing to the US; an emphasis on personal responsibility for economic outcomes; the strengthening of the military; an effort to diminish the role of the federal government in people's lives; admitting immigrants "who love us" and who can provide for themselves, rather than just those who scramble over the fence; a resurgence of patriotism.
This is not an empty list. Indeed, it's a very ambitious agenda--not at all clear that Trump can achieve it. But lack of success and lack of vision are two different things. Mr. Douthat is wrong when he claims Trump has no vision.
The Decadent Society is a beautiful, entertaining book. Perhaps we are decadent, but nowhere near as much a Mr. Douthat claims.
Further Reading:
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