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| Source: CATO Institute |
Thanks to Jaime Monterojo over at Workers' Voice for writing a serious article about the debt ceiling. I'm a few weeks late in getting this up--that's because I've been traveling overseas for several weeks, and then also had some health issues.
Mr. Monterojo's good turn is an article entitled Democrats and GOP make a deal to avert debt crisis. It is a legitimate attempt to discuss the economics of the issue--and while I think his Marxism leads him hopelessly astray, as I'll detail below, I really do appreciate the effort.
Marxist theology comes through loud and clear in one of Mr. Monterojo's introductory paragraphs.
Today the debt is $31.4 trillion, or 133% of U.S. GDP, a 25% jump from 2016. This is the highest level of national debt in U.S. history.
The debt problem has at its root the crisis of capitalism’s profitability. The fall in this profitability, starting in the 1980s, prompted the rich to attack the conditions of the American working class through cuts in public services, anti-union attacks, and factory closures of companies that opted to move to other countries—mainly China—in search of better conditions to generate profits.
To begin, there is no problem with "capitalism's profitability"--this is a myth foisted on us by Marx. Mr. Monterojo cites no data for his assertion, but I assume he's referring to work by Michael Roberts (see here, here and here. See my review of these articles here, along with the bottom-line criticism here.) In bullet points, the reasons why the Marxist notion of the declining rate of profit are wrong are given below.
- Marx's measure of "profit" was a very weirdly defined measure of operating margin. The data required to tabulate it is not collected today. Even Mr. Roberts can't reliably calculate the Marxist figure without making lots of dubious assumptions. The results of that calculation are meaningless, and nobody outside the small, Marxist circle pays any attention to them.
- Marx assumed that all products were commodities--i.e., the only distinguishing feature is price. For example, gasoline is mostly a commodity--one buys gas from the cheapest gas station, and rarely does any other feature count for much. But most of what we buy today are not commodities--nobody chooses an iPhone because it's cheap, and folks don't pick a restaurant based primarily on price. These are not commodities, and the profit margins do not depend on operating margins or the cost of production.
- Even if Marxists could accurately calculate their "operating margin/"profit", they don't understand what their result means. In fact, a "declining rate of profit" is good for the economy because it saves consumers money. The whole purpose of an economy is to benefit consumers (what other purpose could it conceivably have?), and lower profit margins benefit consumers. This is why Walmart limits its operating margins to 3% or below.
- For some bizarre reason, Marx insisted that the "rate of profit" only be calculated for the global economy as a whole. This is impossible--the data don't exist. And it's hard to see how any individual capitalist could make sense of that number even if you could calculate it.
- In point of fact, capitalists don't measure their profit by operating margins, but instead by return on investment. The operating margin does have to be above zero, but beyond that "profit" in the meaningful sense depends on the capital invested, as expressed by the price/earnings ratio. Here "price" is the price of a share of the company, i.e., the cost of capital.
The state began to also lower taxes paid by the rich, one of the fundamental causes of the rise in debt. Successive presidents since Reagan have lowered taxes paid by the wealthy and undermining federal revenues. For example, Bush II lowered taxes on the wealthy in 2001 and 2003, in addition to encouraging the invasions of Afghanistan in 2001 and Iraq in 2003, which required going over $2 trillion in debt, a sum that is growing. In 2017, Trump cut taxes for the country’s wealthiest people to a rate lower than that paid by the working class, the first time in the country’s history.
There are two parts to this argument. First he implies that tax receipts declined following the Trump tax cuts. The chart above shows that's not true. Total tax receipts are largely independent of tax rates.
Second, he says that marginal rates on wealthy people are lower than they are for us poorer folks. This is not strictly true. From this data, the top 1% paid 26.0% of their income in taxes. The top 50% paid 14.6% of their income in taxes. The bottom 50% paid only 3.1% of their income in taxes.
Admittedly, this is only the federal income tax; it doesn't include payroll taxes, paid disproportionately by working people (who also receive a vastly disproportionate share of the benefits). Further, the very poorest people occasionally pay marginal rates in excess of 100%, e.g., when they exceed the maximum income to receive food stamps. So the story is more complicated, but since Mr. Montejero talks about tax rates, then he is obviously referring to the income tax.
Marginal tax rates aside, we have a remarkably progressive tax structure. The top 1% paid 42.3% of all federal income taxes. The next 49% paid 55.4% of all taxes. Meanwhile, the bottom 50% of the population paid only 2.3%. The rich paid more, not because of minor changes to marginal tax rates, but simply because the rich have more money and can afford to pay more.
Mr. Montejero writes,
So the ruling class is in a complicated situation: On the one hand, they need to borrow and spend more money to avoid a crisis and, on the other hand, they need to keep an exorbitant inflation at bay, during which two American banks—the Silicon Valley Bank and Signature—have collapsed. The agreement signed by the Democrats and Republicans worsens national indebtedness, keeps inflation levels high, and ultimately is a postponement of an economic storm that has been growing and threatening the world capitalist economy, at the expense of workers’ living standards.
This paragraph is actually mostly true. I'd replace the words "ruling class" with "government," but perhaps that's a distinction without a difference. Either way, they need to spend more money to avoid a crisis--and they're borrowing it! The flaw in our author's argument is not in this paragraph, but in the preceding where he attributes all ills to the mythical declining rate of profit. That's not the problem.
The problem is political. For decades politicians have been promising their constituents more and more: bigger social security checks, more comprehensive healthcare benefits, exorbitant payments to the higher education cartel, not to mention greater defense expenditures. They got away with this because they never had to pay the bill--the government always borrowed money at low interest rates, and it was up to future generations to pay it all back. By which time said politicians will long since have been out of office.
Well, the future has arrived--and now the bill is due. What we've got is a big, stinking pile of debt--not just in the US, but worldwide. The politicians are increasingly unable to refinance it. Somehow this debt is gonna have to be liquidated--either by paying it back (raising taxes), cutting entitlements (good luck with that!), defaulting on it (ouch!), or inflating it away (happening right now). There are no other alternatives. And that's the crisis.
Debt necessarily lowers future GDP--and today will be no different now that the future has arrived.
It's got nothing to do with any mythical Marxist measure of profit.
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